Wednesday, April 30, 2008

My Latest Predictions

Hi Everyone -

Well, since I read my January DTC group today, I am feeling more strongly that January 12 is the cutoff date. As I'm sitting here feeling sorry for myself, I went ahead and re-calculated my predictions. I base my predictions on an average of the number of poll families (about 100 per Rumor Queen's latest poll) and the average number of days that the CCAA has referred in the past 12 months. Here goes:

June Referrals - Through January 16, 2006

July Referrals - Through January 23, 2006

August - NO REFERRALS DUE TO 2008 OLYMPICS (this is not written in stone, but rumors are flying that this is a definite possibility, just preparing my heart)

September Referrals - Through February 1, 2006

October Referrals - Through February 11, 2006

November Referrals - Through February 16, 2006

December Referrals - Through February 22, 2006

I really think it will be close to the end of the year when see Kaelie's face for the first time. With thousands of dignitaries, athletes, families, and fans pouring into Beijing in August, I just don't see how the CCAA will be able to operate normally. I think it's best to assume that, in a best case scenerio, things will be slow and quiet at the CCAA during August. The CCAA is a government department, and their energies could be used elsewhere during this international event.

The other thing that throws off these predictions is that RQ's current poll closed 4 months ago and only goes through February 12, 2006. How many families have dropped out, changed to special needs, or found RQ in the last few months? It puts a big kink into things and I hope that another poll will be posted soon.

So, to guard my heart, I'm now hoping for a December referral with travel in mid-January, 2009 before Chinese New Year. This will put us a few month's shy of four years of processing this adoption (we applied to our agency May 30, 2005).
Here's a little ladybug to all of my other waiting China mamas! Maybe she will bring us a little luck!


Tonya said...

Wow Karen! to see it like that? What a nightmare. Yuck. There is no way to sugar coat that I guess.


Diane said...

This is even worse than last year! I can't believe that they won't even make it out of Feb '06 in 2008! Even though your predictions show us getting our referral in July, I am still very upset that so many Precious Pandas will have to wait even longer!
Do you have a bucket that I can throw up in?
:( Di

Karen said...

Hey Tonya and Diane -

I took off my rose-colored glasses a long time ago. I'm an optimist, but it's getting more difficult to look happily at each passing referral batch. It seems like we are always taking two steps forward and about 4 steps backward. The closer the CCAA gets to our LID, the further away it seems to be! :<(