Sunday, May 4, 2008

China Adoption Forecast

China Adoption Forecast's website was updated today. Here's what it said in regards to our LID:

"China has 36 days of dossiers to be processed before they get to your dossier. China currently processes about 5-7 days of dossiers each month.

If China did all future referrals at the exact same speed as they did this month: 2009-04-17

Our best guess - a weighted average of recent CCAA velocities, guessing that CCAA will perform about as well in the future as they are performing now, but might return to previous trends: 2008-09-08

That's our best guess for when you might receive your referral. Just at a guess, we can suppose that the CCAA either speeds up or slows down significantly, and show you those dates. If they speed up: 2008-07-03. And if they slow down: 2008-12-29.

Since China generally sends out referrals in a batch about once per month, your referral date could easily vary +/- one month depending on whether you just get included or just get missed in a particular batch."

What does this mean for our family? What I really think it means is not too much at all. It's just a prediction. I'm really leaning toward a referral anywhere between September and December. I still feel like the Olympics are, unfortunately, going to impact our wait time. With that being said, keep in mind that we have a week right before our LID where the CCAA did not process any LID's due to the holiday of Chinese New Year, 2006. SO, these two events could cancel each other out!

RQ said recently that she wasn't ready to put up a new poll, so it's really hard to predict past February 12, 2006. That's where RQ's poll ends. Are February 13, 14, 15, and 16 very heavy days? We could see a couple of 3-day batches. I'm just not sure and I'd love for her to go ahead and get a new poll up. She's usually posted a new poll when referrals get halfway through the current poll, which is now! Come on, RQ! The rest of February's families want to vote and predict!


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