Sunday, February 3, 2008

Referrals and Predictions

Hi Everyone!

Wow, how time flies! I can't believe that I haven't posted in a month! Sorry about that!

The CCAA has removed their documenting processing box from their website, but it seems that the cutoff for February referrals is December 27, 2005. Great news for those families! It was a huge batch in terms of how many families are receiving their referrals.

There are 47 more LID's to go until ours. With that said, I've worked up two sets of predictions on when ours might be coming:

Set 1: Average Number of Days Referred
February - Through December 27
March - Through January 3
April - Through January 10
May - Through January 17
June - Through January 24
July - Through February 8 (accounting for no LID's during Chinese New Year 2006)
August - Through February 15
September - Through February 22

This is based on the fact that the CCAA has referred an average of 7 days per month for the past 12 months.

Set 2: Number of Poll Families
February - Through December 27 (223 poll families - accounts for the incredibly small Jan. batch)
March - Through January 4 (104 poll families)
April - Through January 10 (104 poll families)
May - Through January 13 (108 poll families)
June - Through January 22 (88 poll families)
July - Through January 26 (104 poll families)
August - Through February 8 (94 poll families)
September - Through February 12 (poll ends, with 51 poll families)

This is based on the Rumor Queen's LID polls. Every so often, she puts a poll up and waiting families get to register their LID's. It gives us an idea of how big each day is. It seems like the CCAA has been averaging about 100 poll families lately.

The bad thing is that, even though there is a lot of spectulation out there, no one really knows how the Olympics are going to affect China adoptions and adoption travel. So, these predictions could be really REALLY off depending on if things slow down, completely shut down, or continue as normal.

A September referral would be great for a couple of reasons. If our referral came in September, we could travel the end of October, and I could take maternity leave through the Christmas holidays. I have enough days to do this, plus at the beginning of the next school year I will have 12.5 more days. The weather wouldn't be so hot or so cold (like it is right now!).

Don't get me wrong! I would definitely take getting Kaelie's referral today if they would send it! So, I'm secretly hoping for sooner, just not getting my hopes up!